[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N40W TO 04N41W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS THAT COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN GLOBAL
MODEL INDICATED 850 MB VORTICITY NEAR 09N. PRECIPITATION REMAINS
LIMITED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
06N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N21W TO 05N30W TO 01N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 03W. ISOLATED MODERATE MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 16W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SMALL 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19.5N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N94W TO
THE LOW CENTER TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. BORIS NEAR 16.5N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N-
22N BETWEEN 90W-93W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N WITH
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVELS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
N OF 18N W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
75W.

...HISPANIOLA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLAND. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ...
INSTABILITY...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N57W
TO 26N60W TO 23N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 55W-58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-80W. A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W
OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH TO 24N54W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE METEOSAT
SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE
ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN E OF 50W EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 40N60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 46N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION N OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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