[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO 13N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE EXHIBITS CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS THAT COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN GLOBAL
MODEL INDICATED 850 MB VORTICITY NEAR 09N. CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED WITH ISOLATED MODERATE OCCURRING FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN
40W-42W...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N19W TO 04N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
03W...AND FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 24W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 11W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION WESTWARD TO
28N92W THEN SW TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
24N98W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREVENTING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING N OF 27N ACROSS THE GULF. ALL THIS
MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GENERATED BY A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY S OF 25N W OF 88W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FOCUSED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. FURTHER
AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER EL
SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE FRINGE
OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N85W. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG ALONG
29N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE U.S. COASTLINE INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W.
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL EAST OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE...E-SE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 17N AND W OF
81W...INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES. TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING S OF 10N W OF 80W IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES DUE
TO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT S OF 17N E OF 81W. AN INTRUSION OF
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ALSO IMPACTING THIS AREA SUPPORTING
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE FOR THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS...AND
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY
IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NOTED S OF
16N BETWEEN 67W-77W AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS
AROUND 04/1418 UTC CONFIRMED THIS STRONGER AREA OF WIND BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST.

...HISPANIOLA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC NEAR 38N64W WITH A 1007 MB LOW COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. PARTIALLY OCCLUDED TO THE NORTH OF 36N...TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N56W EXTENDING TO 30N57W CONTINUING SW AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 26N60W TO 23N65W TO 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
E OF 62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 30N69W. MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO COVER
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 25N W OF 68W. FARTHER
EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO INFLUENCE THE WATERS E OF 50W AS A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W
OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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