[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N27W TO 2N31W MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING ALONG 70W
FROM 3N-13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-13N
BETWEEN 65W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM 2N-10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
78W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 07N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N15W TO 08N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM
03N33W TO 03N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 21W AND
24W...AND FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 34W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N95W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER
THE E GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 80W-90W TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND W CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION
OVER THE E GULF TO SPREAD FURTHER TO THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND S MEXICO. PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO HAS CONVECTION DUE
TO T.D. TWO-E CENTERED OVER THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JAMAICA AND PUERTO
RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF
82W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ISLAND DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N55W TO
26N60W TO 24N70W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A
LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N34W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N50W WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO
SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 08N BETWEEN 303-60W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N62W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N33W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION N OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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