[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N25W TO 2N30W MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING ALONG
69/70W FROM 2N-10N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N76W OVER COLOMBIA TO NEAR 3N77W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NORTH EXTENT OF THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE
CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION BELOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N23W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N33W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N40W TO ALONG THE THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W-49W WHERE IT
TURNS S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W WITH CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 33W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA THROUGH THE CENTER
NEAR 25N94W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N95W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE
AREA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 91W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA EXTENDS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA AND THE
FAR E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER GEORGIA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 90W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NW TO
SE ALIGNED. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE TROUGH MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE
E GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 83W
TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N78W ACROSS COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF
82W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COULD GENERATE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE
TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
IS FURTHER PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE ON WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 55W-78W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 26N61W 24N70W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO JUST
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT E
OF 61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM SE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH ABOUT 250 NM W OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S
THROUGH TUE AND STALL FROM NEAR 32N56W THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THEN DRIFT N AND BECOME DIFFUSE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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