[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF 25N W OF 95W
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE GALE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W LATE TONIGHT THEN NARROWING TO WITH 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST COLOMBIA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THU... FRI...AND SAT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N18W TO 00N27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAIN STATES CONTINUING S OVER MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES AND CONTINUES
ALONG 24N87W TO 20N93W TO S OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE GULF W OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
FAR SOUTH PORTION BY THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST FRI AND SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W
PANAMA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
IN THE E AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N84W TO OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N82W AND
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
19N80W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE. THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR S COAST GENERATED BY THE TRADE
WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SECTION IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
32N73W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N77W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT
AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT W OF 77W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 19N45W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-
23N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 36N38W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING THEN RETROGRADE NW TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES SLOWLY NE THROUGH THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 31N69W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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