[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW. A COLD FRONT
FROM 28N82W TO 22N94W TO 19N96W. WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST N OF
FRONT TO 25N NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT W OF 85W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 13 FT IN NE SWELL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FOR EASTERLY GALE-
FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS 10 TO 14
FT IN NE SWELL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W...TO 8N16W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W
TO 2N22W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N
BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 4W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 64W. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W...TO 24N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N96W ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND 20N98W INLAND IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN
MEXICO FROM 20N98W TO 25N102W AND BEYOND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COMPARATIVELY GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN MAY BE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF
87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FROM MIAMI TO THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
30N TO 31N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 27N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.17 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.51 INCHES
FOR 28/1200 UTC.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 2
MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KMYT AND KATP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE PREDOMINANT FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE MIXED WITH THE HIGHER
CEILINGS...SUCH AS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG
COVER SARASOTA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE
BEING OBSERVED FROM PUNTA GORDA TO PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...RAIN...AND
THUNDER HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND IT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 25N22W 19N45W 10N60W TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
PRESENT ALSO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM
COASTAL PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N76W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 5N84W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...ONE AREA OF INTEREST THAT IS FROM 11N TO 16N E
OF 78W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT 10 TO 14 FT S OF 14N W OF 74W. A SECOND
AREA IS...ELSEWHERE S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W E WINDS 30
TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL...EXCEPT
10 TO 13 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. REMAINDER AREA FROM
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W
AND 72W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN E
SWELL.

...HISPANIOLA...

A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CUTS DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO AT
LEAST 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER
BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A RIDGE FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE WESTWARD. HISPANIOLA WILL RECEIVE NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING
25N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N32W...TO A 19N45W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W NEAR AND JUST OUTSIDE
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 24W...AND FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF
53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N38W...THROUGH 32N47W TO 30N53W AND 27N62W...ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...ONE AREA FROM 17N TO 26N E OF 47W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF
LINE FROM 31N54W TO 20N72W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
IN NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N78W
TO 29N81W. N OF 30N W OF FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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