[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271114 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY WED
MORNING W OF COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE N GULF
TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS
HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 12W-24W AND FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 24W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 2W-7W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC E OF 85W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAIN
STATES. A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
27N86W TO NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N
OF 27N E OF 89W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TODAY AND
SLOWLY SHIFT S THROUGH MID WEEK. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADING S FROM THE W/CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW
GULF LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
S GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM S CUBA NEAR 21N78W W OF JAMAICA TO 15N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE AND EXTREME
SW HAITI AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N60W ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 17N76W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE. TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER EXTREME SW HAITI THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE GULF OF GONAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH TUE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING WED.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF
70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF
LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N74W. REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W ATLC FROM 28N71W TO JUST OFF THE N COAST
OF CUBA NEAR 22N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N48W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N27W TO A SECOND
UPPER LOW NEAR 16N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOWS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 25W-28W AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 43W-
47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 17N16W. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
STALL ACROSS THE EXTREME NW ATLC TUE WITH A REINFORCING FRONT
OVERTAKING IT WED. THE MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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