[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270541 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N30W 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 13W-23W AND
FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC E OF
87W FORCING THE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WESTWARD
TO OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA
OVER THE E GULF ALONG 25N85W TO 23N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF FROM 27N-
29N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF MON AND SLOWLY SHIFT S
THROUGH MID WEEK. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT SPREADING S FROM THE W/CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW GULF LATE
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM S CUBA NEAR 20N77W ACROSS THE W TIP OF JAMAICA TO
15N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. WEAK SURFACE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON AND BECOME DIFFUSE.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER HAITI TONIGHT AND INTO THE GULF OF
GONAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ALONG THE BORDER OF HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUE WIT CONDITIONS CLEARING WED.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF
73W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM OFF
VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N74W. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHS
REMAIN IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N60W ALONG 30N65W TO
28N68W. A SECOND MORE ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 25N73W TO
THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N46W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR
24N27W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 17N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOWS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 26W-28W AND FROM 15N-
18N BETWEEN 41W-44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING
FROM 21N18W 17N20W TO 14N20W. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE ON MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST MON NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE
AREA BY LATE TUE WITH A REINFORCING FRONT OVERTAKING IT WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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