[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
THIS EVENING THAT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE N TO NE
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT W OF 94W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N24W TO 02N30W TO 06N44W TO 05N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 18W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION W-SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
NEAR 30N83W W-SW TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR 29N90W TO
THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND N OF 22N W
OF 94W ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INLAND ACROSS THE
GULF COASTAL PLAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA WESTWARD TO
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING
ABSORBED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING EXPECTED TO
ONCE AGAIN INFLUENCE THE GULF ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHWESTERLY E OF 70W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS EVENING. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM EASTERN
CUBA W-SW TO THE NORTHERN BELIZE COAST NEAR 18N88W. AS THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT...THE SHEAR LINE NOTES A CHANGE IN AIRMASS
COMPOSITION AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 76W. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THINS OUT AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO PREVAIL. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IS
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KT WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. A FEW PASSING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA N
OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-74W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS GENERALLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-
74W AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO THE NW FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS W-SW TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND MOISTURE THINS OUT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG N-NW WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N W OF 70W TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT. FARTHER EAST...THE TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W SW TO THE SE
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR
LINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST
OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N22W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN E OF
55W AND PROVIDE RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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