[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND IS FORECAST TO BRING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WEST OF 92W STARTING AT 24/0600 UTC.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N11W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 01N30W TO 0N39W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-07N EAST OF 20W AND
FROM 0N-05N BETWEEN 15W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EXTENDING ALONG A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS
THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY A 1046 MB
HIGH. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM PANAMA
CITY NEAR 30N85W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W TO CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS NEAR 27N96W. IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN U.S. WITH BASE EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER TEXAS WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF
N OF 26N WEST OF 87W. EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 10-15 KT IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE FRONT BY 24/0600 UTC.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CLEAR SKIES COVER
THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER LEVELS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN STARTING SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN U.S.
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH A BASE EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS EASTERN CUBA AND
TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 20N75W TO 17N80W. REMNANT
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT ARE FROM 16N-
21N WEST OF 77W. DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS
OF 15 KT DOMINATES EXCEPT WITHIN 160 NM OF THE NORTHER COLOMBIA
COAST WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT. THE SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD AND
MONA PASSAGES. SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ARE DRIFTING
WESTWARD TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN U.S.
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N58W TO
24N67W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N21W WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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