[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT NORTHWESTERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N12W TO 06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N13W TO 02N20W TO 01N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 21W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S.
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM NW FLORIDA
NEAR 29N82W TO 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT EAST
OF 93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE SE GULF AND SW N ATLC
ENHANCES SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AT THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UP TO 25 KT IS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN WED MORNING LEAVING
BEHIND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. A NEW COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S.
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO 19N80W TO COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS
NEAR 16N84W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EVEN THAT MOSTLY DRY
AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE VIRGIN AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS. NORTHERLY WIND OF 10-15 KT ARE WEST OF THE
FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 200
NM FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. BY WED MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW BASIN WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. ON THU MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MERGE THE STATIONARY FRONT AND STALL ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ISLAND AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED
FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W SW TO COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN
HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MERGES THE STATIONARY FRONT
AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S.
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N56W SW
TO 24N67W TO 21N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING FRONT
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EAST
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE FRONT N OF
26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE SW N ATLC WEST
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N50W TO 04N52W AND
GENERATES ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 42W-54W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N35W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 11N-23N BETWEEN 30W-43W ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N41W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SW N ATLC WEST OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN COAST TONIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net