[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Jan 21 12:00:07 CST 2014

AXNT20 KNHC 211804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
ALSO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 29N...TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM
31N66W TO 26N80W.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N14W TO 2N19W...
1N30W...AND 1N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 5W AND 17W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
4N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CUTTING THROUGH THE
U.S.A....FROM KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TO LOUISIANA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH COASTAL ALABAMA...TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS THAT ARE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA...TO 27N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N97W...INTO INTERIOR MEXICO
NEAR 26N106W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
20N TO THE EAST OF 94W. THIS IS THE CASE ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. NAPLES FLORIDA WAS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN
AS LATE AS 21/1353 UTC.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE PLATFORM SITES.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KATP AND KMYT. ICAO STATION K9F2 WAS REPORTING A LOW
CLOUD CEILING AT 21/1250 UTC. THE VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS
WITH HAZE AT STATION KIPN. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KINGSVILLE TEXAS AND IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PANAMA CITY TO MARIANNA
AND TO TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE
STARTED TO CLEAR A BIT DURING THE LAST HOUR IN THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS NAPLES.
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 30N87W 25N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 9 FEET TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N65W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W...CURVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 27N60W 22N72W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MOISTURE IS
REACHING WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND JUST ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MORE CONCENTRATED
TO THE EAST OF 71W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
83W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG IS ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 76W
AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...BARAHONA..AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS
COVER PUNTA CANA AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-
PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A TROUGH FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR
SO. WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA.
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERN WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA25N67W TO 20N75W IN SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND ACROSS JAMAICA INTO EASTERN HONDURAS AT THE START OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT 24 HOURS INTO THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE
INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN...LEAVING ONLY THE RIDGE
PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N42W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 22N45W...TO THE CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 13N45W AND 1N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N49W 8N50W 5N50W. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM
1N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W...INCLUDING PARTS OF COASTAL
BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH MAURITANIA TO
12N20W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N55W-TO-SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
STATIONARY FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N34W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 50W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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