[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 14/2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE ATLANTIC E OF
JACJSONVILLE FLORIDA MOVING E. A GALE IS FORECAST TO BE W OF
FRONT N OF 27N ON 15/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
07N18W TO 04W22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N22W TO 01N26W TO 00N30W TO 02N43W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 10W-
14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 20W-36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 36W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 14/2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N94W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OFF THE TEXAS COAST. FURTHER
E... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N88W TO 19N92W.  LIGHTNING
DETECTION DEPICTS CONVECTION NEAR HAVANA CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAILS OVER
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND BE REPLACED WITH 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE NW GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 14/2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO ALONG 21N88W 19N92W 16N91W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADE
WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA...AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...BELIZE
...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA...FROM 08N-
21N BETWEEN 80W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA AT 23N83W
TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 17N85W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W. UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING ALL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO
ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 14/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THW W ATLANTIC FROM
31N80W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS FORECAST W OF FRONT.
SEE ABOVE. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 41N50W. A
DEEP LAYERED COLD-CORE LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N41W
WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 35W-41W.
30 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N39W MOVING NW. A 1029 MB HIGH IS  OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
35N21W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC TO EXTND FROM 30N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TWO E ATLANTIC LOWS TO MERGE WITH CONVECTION REMAINING OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net