[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N11W TO 06N16W TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30N TO 03N42W. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 02N45W TO 06N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 07W-13W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 19W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 30W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE BASIN VIA THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N84W S-SW TO 26N87W THEN SW TO 22N91W TO 19N92W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 23N WITHIN
120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 75 NM WEST OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY A 1025
MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NE MEXICO THAT WILL SLIDE EAST
PROVIDING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10
TO 20 KT INTO THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING IN THE NW GULF AND SPREADING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS
ALOFT REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER EACH ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY
AND STABLE AIR. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N72W CONTINUES TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE OF
THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED S OF 17N BETWEEN
66W-78W...INCLUDING 20 TO 25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING
AREAS S OF 12N W OF 80W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 75W-88W ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PUERTO RICO TO THE GRENADINES.

...HISPANIOLA...
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND
OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER
LIMITED...STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W TO BEYOND 32N66W. ASIDE FROM A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N75W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 26N80W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 40N53W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SW TO 20N70W. FARTHER
EAST...A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N40W THAT
SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A
DOMINANT 1009 MB LOW NEAR 27N41W AND A SECONDARY 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH NEAR 24N41W. THE DOMINANT LOW IS OCCLUDED
WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N43W TO 30N38W TO 26N35W WHERE
IT BECOMES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 20N36W TO 14N42W.
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ARE
OCCURRING FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN 27W-42W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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