[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
6N10W TO 5N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N23W TO 5N33W TO
1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 25W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PERSIST WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER S MISSISSIPPI AT 32N90W MAINTAINING A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENDT OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GULF S OF 25N TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH A 90-
110 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR A LESSENING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FOR SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SE GULF TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT
22N78W TO HONDURAS AT 15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION. 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST N OF THE
FRONT. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND S OF 17N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE  YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...W HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND S COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND S OF JAMAICA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS
PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IN
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE
FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. 20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NW
OF THE FRONT WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. A 1030 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N42W. THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N20W TO
26N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SHEAR
LINE CONTINUES WSW FROM 26N27W TO 21N40W TO 21N50W. STRONGER NW
WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CENTERED OVER THE AZORES AT 38N26W...AT
20N40W...AND E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N56W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 20N40W PRODUCING
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-20N
BETWEEN 10W-30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE...HOWEVER THE
SHEAR LINE WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE 48 HOUR POINT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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