[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 22N80W 16N86W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 11 TO 16 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 83W
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA
HEIGHTS ARE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO
5N16W AND 5N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N23W TO 5N29W 5N33W
2N40W AND 3N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO
26N30W 20N34W AND 10N43W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 30N21W AND
27N27W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 27N27W TO 21N39W AND 22N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W
22N30W 18N45W 19N54W 20N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 480 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
21N18W 15N26W 10N37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE 22N66W 32N60W RIDGE. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N74W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND CUBA NEAR 22N79W...TO 20N83W...TO
THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W...ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS TO
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 25N70W
TO 20N79W AND 16N85W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.20 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGBK...KATP...KMYT...AND KIPN.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX AND KVAF. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM PORT
LAVACA SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE NEW
ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PENSACOLA TO MILTON...IN VALPARAISO...
AND IN TALLAHASSEE. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST. CLEAR
SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 16 FEET...COMPARATIVELY THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 28N82W TO
28N92W TO 20N95W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST
OF 95W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.
FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA
AND IN PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA...BEING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO COVER HISPANIOLA AT
THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR 25N65W DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY TO THE WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW
MERGES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...AND BECOMING WESTERLY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...AND
EASTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.23 IN
TRINIDAD...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...AND
BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...EARLIER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE
COLOMBIA COAST FROM 3N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 80W HAS WEAKENED.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG REMAINS FROM 2N TO
7N TO THE EAST OF 83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 22N66W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N63W BEYOND 32N60W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ROUGHLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 57W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N44W TO 30N53W 29N61W 26N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE 30N21W 27N27W COLD FRONT/27N27W 22N49W SHEAR AXIS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N70W 22N77W. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET...THE
COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL PART...TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET OUTSIDE THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A
SHEAR LINE IS ALONG 23N35W TO 21N50W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 17 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SHEAR LINE TO THE EAST OF 49W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
45W AND 61W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM 31N50W TO 24N69W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST
OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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