[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 03/0000 UTC SOUTH OF
24N WEST OF 95W WITH THIS AREA GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE MEXICO COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N WITHIN
120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTHWEST
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BRIEFLY FRIDAY N OF 30W WEST OF
THE FRONT TO 77W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
05N12W TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO 03N26W TO 04N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 20W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM THE SW GULF COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W SW TO
THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. STRONG N-NW WINDS
ARE ALREADY OBSERVED IN BUOY...SHIP...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS
ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN
THIS EVENING S OF 24N W OF 95W. SOUTHEAST OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N91W...IS PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA
AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N95W. THESE BOUNDARIES...ALONG
WITH AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF WEST OF A LINE FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NEAR 28N83W SW
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W.
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY CLEARS EAST OF THE GULF BASIN BY MID-DAY FRIDAY.
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
21N65W. TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE
STRONGEST TRADES NOTED E OF 80W. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
CONCENTRATED ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE BASIN MOST NOTABLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 63W-74W...FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 77W-84W...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN
EARLY FRIDAY AND STALLING ALONG 20N/21N FOR THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW PASSING TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO
DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W. THIS
FLOW IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 21N65W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N78W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 30N81W AND INTO THE NE GULF WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 15 TO 25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LOW-LEVEL ATLC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 35N59W IS PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
STRETCHING FROM 20N50W TO 21N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W.
ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W THAT
EXTENDS SW TO 31N43W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N50W TO 28N64W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO MAINLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N27W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 31N13W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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