[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
IN 18 HOURS...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 18 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
IN 18 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 95W...WITH A COLD
FRONT FROM 28N82W TO 19N88W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
IN 18 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF A
31N78W 29N80W COLD FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
5N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 3N30W 4N35W AND 3N42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND
15W...AND FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO...ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N90W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W TO
29N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY NEAR 27N70W AND IT CONTINUES TO 26N63W AND 27N56W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 84W AND 94W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N26W 27N43W 27N70W 28N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO
19N96W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO
STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS OF THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE REST
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS HAVE BEEN CLEARING SINCE THEN...ALSO
REACHING SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES 2
MILES OR LESS...WITH AREAS OF RAIN...COVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...AND STILL AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND VISIBILITIES OF 2
MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND PUNTA GORDA. THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE REST OF THE
FLORIDA COAST HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT SINCE THEN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 6 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 29N90W TO 22N97W.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA...WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND NEARBY RAINSHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW...WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA...FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO. SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA DURING THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
10 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 83W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N38W TO 29N46W AND 27N56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W
TO 27N43W 27N70W AND 28N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N40W TO
20N41W...TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
16N48W...TO 13N55W AND 10N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N
TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N25W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N38W 29N46W 27N56W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W INCLUDING IN
THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 57W AND
FROM 21N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 58W. THE 6 HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 31N79W TO 30N82W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 480
NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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