[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 39W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 08W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 29W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN SOUTH OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-
110W. THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS...THE SE CONUS...AND THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 23N. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM
EASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION NEAR 29N102W. THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE EXTREME
NW GULF WATERS AND WILL USHER IN N-NE WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO
25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE THURSDAY. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
OCCURRING GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE FRONT N
OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-97W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SE
CONUS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST
GULF NEAR 27N83W THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC WITH MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
5 TO 15 KT ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING
IN FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-78W IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO DRY
AND STABLE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES SW TO 29N60W THEN WEST TO 30N68W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT NEAR 29N64W TO 27N72W REFLECTIVE
OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 29N69W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 64W-73W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 49W-66W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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