[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N20W TO 01N30W TO 01N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN
25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN SOUTH OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-110W. THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME IS PROVIDING
FOR AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS...AND THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
23N. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO WEST TEXAS ALONG 30N THAT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN N-NE WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE THURSDAY. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-96W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST GULF
NEAR 28N84W THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC WITH MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO
15 KT ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING
IN FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-78W IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES SW TO 29N60W TO 28N74W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-74W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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