[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W
AND 81W EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 2N20W
1N30W AND 1N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 23W AND
53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 23N98W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
A SQUALL LINE IS 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM 27N TO 31N ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N79W...TO 27N82W IN FLORIDA...TO 26N88W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF
90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N70W...
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W...TO 23N88W IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KAXO AND KIPN.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN TEXAS FROM THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
CORPUS CHRISTI...AND IN THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF CORPUS CHRISTI
AND HOUSTON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PENSACOLA
TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION NEAR MILTON. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAINSHOWERS/DRIZZLE COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY TO TALLAHASSEE TO
PANAMA CITY. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE
TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 22N98W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 87W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N TO THE WEST OF 95W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N53W 23N60W...THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE...TO 14N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW...MOSTLY FROM 12N TO 17N AND MOVING ACROSS
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF
JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.20 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...
BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO
13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N53W 23N60W...THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE...TO 14N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN BARAHONA...IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN LA ROMANA...AND IN PUNTA
CANA ALSO WITH A LOW CLOUD CEILING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ALSO
COVER SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE AND A
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND WILL
COVER THE AREA...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N53W 23N60W...THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE...TO 14N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N
TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N9W...
ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 32N23W AND 27N26W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N21W...TO 32N30W 30N50W 29N70W...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W...TO 23N88W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 76W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
FROM 22N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 55W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE
FROM 30N35W TO 20N73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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