[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W SW
TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. GALE FORCE NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 25N TO 27N WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NW GULF. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE
NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO 02N23W TO 02N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 17W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 30N90W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W SW
TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
EXTENDS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N85W SW TO
27N89W THAT BECOMES PART OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHING
EXTENDING S-SW TO 23N93W TO 19N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL
LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT...
ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF WATERS. THEREAFTER...LIGHT
SOUTHERN RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 24N60W SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGHING THAT ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE
BASIN RESULTING IN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD
WITHIN THE TRADE WIND REGIME...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SATURDAY. A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS
GENERATING E-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SW NORTH
ATLC RIDGING WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...
A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ISLAND WITHIN E-SE TRADES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
ACROSS THE SE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE PUSHED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST
AND ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS REMAINING N
OF 28N W OF 77W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND RETREATS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED E-NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N60W. TO THE SE
OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 32N51W TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 50W-59W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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