[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE
NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 04N15W TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF 04N
BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N.
5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
AREA. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70'S AND 80'S OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W WHILE A SLIGHT TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE OVER TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
E TO FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A GALE ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADEWIND
REGIME NAMELY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND E
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER
GUATEMALA...E HONDURAS...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 30N W OF
70W WITH FAIR WEATHER. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 30N48W TO 27N60W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 27N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC S OF 30N. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT N WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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