[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE
NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO
12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 04N15W TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF 04N
BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OVERALL THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W TO 28N96W. S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10
TO 20 KT PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE BASIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EJECTS E-NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF FRIDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY ZONAL DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE RESULT AS WELL ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADE WIND REGIME. DUE TO A
STRENGTHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...E-NE WINDS REMAIN IN THE
RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DIMINISHING GRADUALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SW NORTH ATLC
RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND WITHIN E-NE TRADES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG 30N THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND
BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RELAXING OF THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IN THE VICINITY OF 36N52W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM THE AZORES SW TO 31N42W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO
26N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT...AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 60W-
66W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA NEAR
32N65W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...ASIDE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MENTIONED...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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