[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-48W TO S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER FLORIDA JUST N
OF ORLANDO TO TUXPAN MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE S GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST LATE THU MOVING SE THEN STALL FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA
TO SW GULF BY EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC TO OVER E CUBA PROVIDING
MOISTURE TO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA BETWEEN 75W-78W. THE NE SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AT 18/2100 UTC
IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N63W TO
20N65W BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N W OF 65W. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E
THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF PUERTO RICO
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED INCREASING
MOISTURE AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W AND
EXTENDS TO 24N63W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N
AND WITHIN 90/120 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM S OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA WITH A WEAK
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT
AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 34N26W. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT WHILE THE STATIONARY
PORTION DIES OUT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE W ATLC N OF 28N
LATE WED AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THU. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI THEN
STALL FROM 31N78W TO 30N81W BY SAT MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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