[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
TO 1N20W...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 1S26N TO 1N43W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N EAST OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 150 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 30N AND 36W.
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN
48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ALOFT.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR N GULF. A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF REGION. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM 21N95W TO 16N93W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF BY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLC EXTENDS INTO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY
INTO WED. SHALLOW MOISTURE...EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. LOW-TOPPED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CONFIRMED THE
PRESENCE OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO ADVECTING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N
OF AREA AND THE PANAMANIAM/COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT...THE 1410 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS
SHOWED SEVERAL WIND BARBS OF 30 KT IN THAT AREA. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS WILL
HELP TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N51W AND EXTENDS
SW TO NEAR 27N58W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FROM TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
PRETTY WELL DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BECOME
DIFFUSE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS ALONG 72W-73W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL
OF 1024 MB NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FL. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. FRESH NE
FLOW IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTO EASTERN
CUBA. EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A 1030 MB
HIGH PRES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND A LOW PRES OVER AFRICA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS LATER
TODAY INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AS HIGH PRES PRESENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC WILL BE REINFORCING BY STRONGER HIGH PRES
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 17N29W IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
REGIONAL WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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