[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N19W TO 01N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 22W-51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 06W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THIS EVENING.
THE STABILITY REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N87W ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE BASIN.
THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK NOTED
ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. THIS AREA OF LOWER-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPANDS EASTWARD AND THE NEXT FRONT
DRAPES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF
SURINAME NEAR 08N57W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH THE DRIEST AIR W OF 70W.
AT THE SURFACE...OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A
FEW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...AN AREA FROM 13N-
17N BETWEEN 66W-71W...AND THE AREA N OF 16N BETWEEN 73W-79W.
OTHERWISE...E-NE TRADES CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTS
OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN FAIR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
NOTED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
OVERALL STABILITY IS DUE TO GENERALLY DRY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE ISLAND THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BY MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N61W. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS ANALYZED TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM 32N60W TO 25N67W TO 21N75W. BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE INFLUENCE OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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