[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N13W AND CONTINUES TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N14W TO INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA NEAR 5N5W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 6N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC E OF 90W
SUPPORTING COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE AT 16/1500 UTC EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N
COAST OF CUBA ALONG 23N80W TO 22N86W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 24N W OF 95W. HOWEVER DUE TO
DRY STABLE AIR...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED.
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT NE OF AREA TODAY LEAVING AN E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF
THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE NE COAST
OF VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS TO OVER E CUBA PROVIDING MOISTURE TO THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE NE SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE
PRESENT AND THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE A SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-
19N BETWEEN 73W-77W INCLUDING SW HAITI AND E JAMAICA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO
S BELIZE. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER SW HAITI. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED
KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTRODUCING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY
OVER HAITI THROUGH WED. A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF
60W SUPPORTING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA
AND EXTENDS 25N73W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AT 16/1500 UTC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A
WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
31N60W 26N66W TO CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
74W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR
32N33W. COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT
THEN LOSING IDENTITY N OF HISPANIOLA LATE MON. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY THIS WEEK SHIFTING TO N FLORIDA BY MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net