[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER
SW AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-9W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE GULF AT
10/2100 UTC AND EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW OVER SW LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N91W THEN ALONG 28N98W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF
BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E
GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA
NEAR 19N84W. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
RELATIVELY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO TUE MORNING. E PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR
PENSACOLA WED WITH W PORTION BEING FORCED QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED
NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY SE THU EXITING THE AREA BY THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N TO ACROSS CUBA.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND WILL BE PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 73W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 12N BETWEEN
77W-83W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. TRADE WINDS
ARE ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA E OF 78W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU
AND KEEP ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. THIS
WILL BRING THE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING NEAR
32N60W AND CONTINUING ALONG 8N68W TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 63W-69W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO
27N52W. A LARGER UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM
24N28W TO BEYOND 32N25W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN THEN
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TUE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO NW WATERS WED NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N75W TO W CUBA
THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE
FORCE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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