[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N15W TO 8N17W AND 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO 1S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 5N8W 6N14W 3N32W 6N37W 7N44W 6N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS
HISPANIOLA.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

A COLD FRONT IS INLAND. IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...PASSING THROUGH 100W FROM 28N TO 29N IN SOUTH
TEXAS...AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N87W...ANGLING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A MEXICO
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVAF. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KVBS...KGBK...
AND KATP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS
WITH FOG AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVER PARTS OF THE CORPUS
CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. IT IS RAINING IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG
COVERS THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER LOUISIANA. LAKE CHARLES AND
LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR
LESS WITH FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A FEW LOW CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CLEARING SKIES ARE BEGINNING AND/OR ALREADY
HAVE BEGUN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY TO NAPLES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO 28N94W TO
26N97W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST
OF 93W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF 80W...
WESTERLY BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND NORTHWESTERLY TO THE EAST OF
70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 27N47W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 20N56W AND 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF 74W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND
8N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO
THE WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N
TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS
HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN
PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AND MOVE TO PUERTO RICO
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL
MOVE TO 19N61W AT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF
FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WITH MULTIPLE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERS WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE END OF THE
FIRST 24 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH
32N58W TO 28N69W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 28N69W AND IT
CONTINUES TO 27N73W AND 26N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 24N66W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.69 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.23 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N47W...TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N56W...TO 9N62W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 10N TO 29N BETWEEN 38W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS SAME AREA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N19W TO 30N30W 28N41W 26N48W 25N59W AND 25N70W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N58W-TO-
26N75W FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 31N35W TO 25N40W TO 20N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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