[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
06N15W TO 04N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO 01N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO 01N39W
THEN TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 05W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 28W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE
BASIN OVER WEST TEXAS NEAR 31N104W AND WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA SW
ACROSS SE TEXAS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA SW TO 24N98W...IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED S OF 27N EAST OF THE
PRECIPITATION LINE AS ONLY A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO DAYTONA BEACH. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING USHERING IN
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF N-NE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 07N75W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY
RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER IS AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN
TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE...THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL
RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-78W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND E OF 71W AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 80W IS PROVIDING MUCH OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 60W-80W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A
SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA NE
TO BEYOND 32N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N47W. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA E OF 60W IS A CUT-OFF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N49W THAT IS PROVIDING
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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