[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
03N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N17W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W TO 1N42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
4N BETWEEN 9W-19W AND FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 27W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH LOCATED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SE TO A BASE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH NO INLAND CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
CARIBBEAN BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS
GENERATING DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF MEXICO AND OVER THE N-NW GULF N OF 27N
W OF 85W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
ADVECTION FOG OVER THE SAME REGION AND INLAND ALONG THE COAST.
RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUN
MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY MON MORNING THIS NEW
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO
CENTRAL-EASTERN MEXICO WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE
RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT
THE SURFACE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE
TO SHOW MODERATE MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN EASTERN TO
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY ALONG WITH TRADEWINDS OF
15-20 KT ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE ALSO
FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE A W-NW
TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA THROUGH MON
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
N OF 17N. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW
AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SE TO A BASE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N80W TO 29N81W TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W.
MODERATELY MOIST S-SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THUS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER ATLC BASIN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N52W. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 8N-26N BETWEEN 37W-51W WITH POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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