[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281715
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N11W AND
EXTENDS TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 4N37W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM NW OF FRONT EXTENDING INLAND. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW
OVER THE GULF. UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC IS
STREAMING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE
MON WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS JUST N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W IS PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS MON...AND INTO BELIZE.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO PASS
OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N66W ANCHORS A
BROAD RIDGE AND DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 18N WITH FAIR WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N37W TO 24N41W
TO 19N55W THEN DISSIPATING TO PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH W OF PORTUGAL NEAR
38N16W EXTENDS A RIDGE S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N38W WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER ENHANCING
CONVECTION N OF 27N. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE N OF THE AREA MON
WHILE DRAGGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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