[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N9W AND
EXTENDS TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N40W TO
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 32W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO NE
MEXICO AT 24N98W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL CITIES ARE IN THE 40'S AND
50'S. AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF WATERS SE OF THE FRONT ARE
IN THE 70'S. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM
NW OF FRONT EXTENDING WELL INLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 78W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER
THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE N AND THE W GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER N BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N AND N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE ISLAND IN THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO ADVECT
OVER THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALOFT...RIDGING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N68W WITH
FAIR WEATHER. A 1007 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N39W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N40W TO
20N50W TO 19N60W TO 21N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 38N16W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S TO BEYOND
THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N38W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE CENTER PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N
BETWEEN 30W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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