[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W WITH NE WINDS 25-35 KT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE ON SAT 27/1200 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N12W AND
EXTENDS TO 07N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N30W
TO 04N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N77W. 10-20 KT E TO SE
RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-
91W. PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE REPORTING DENSE FOG. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER
THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NE
MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 20-
30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 15
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF N NICARAGUA N OF 13N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HAITI. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND HOWEVER MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 26N52W TO 24N60W TO 27N73W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD
FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN 42W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. FURTHER E...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY NEAR GALE WINDS N OF 24N BETWEEN
30W-35W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 37N35W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N BETWEEN
22W-33W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E WITH SHOWERS...AND FOR A 1026 MB HIGH TO MOVE OVER TO THE
W ATLANTIC REACHING 33N68W WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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