[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W WITH NE WINDS 25-35 KT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE ON SAT 27/1200 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N12W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N25W
TO 05N37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 28W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W. 10-
20 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 28N
BETWEEN 91W-92W. PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS REPORTING DENSE
FOG. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW
FLOW OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST
OF TEXAS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 20-
30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 15
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF N NICARAGUA N OF 13N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HAITI. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW CONTINUES
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N52W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 28N56W TO 27N75W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N
OF 26N BETWEEN 45W-53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONTS. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N35W TO 22N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 26W-34W. SOUTHERLY NEAR GALE WINDS
ARE ALSO OVER THIS AREA. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N35W WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS...AND
FOR A 1026 MB HIGH TO MOVE OVER TO THE W ATLANTIC REACHING
34N70W WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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