[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W OF
94W. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WED...AND CLEAR
THE GULF WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 05N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N30W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS NEAR 6.5N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER
AND SURFACE DATA ACROSS THE GULF REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF LATER
TONIGHT AND TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE GULF AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT
WAS MEANDERING ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A LONG-
WAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF REGION AND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE
OF THESE WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE BASIN...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE SE WIND
FLOW. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS LATE THU...THEN STALL IN THE SAME AREA THU NIGHT.
STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA WHERE A SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ARE NOTED E OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINLY N OF 27N W OF 77W. A
1023 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED ENE OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N61W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY N OF 20N W OF 50W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE ALSO NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER EAST...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N38W AND
EXTENDS TO 27N44W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 34W. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
REACHES THE SW N ATLC ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 27N
W OF 65W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS NOTED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS.
LOOKING AHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE E OF NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SW N  ATLANTIC WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
31N74W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THU...FROM 29N65W TO WESTERN
CUBA LATE FRI...THEN WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 25N65W TO
SE FLORIDA LATE SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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