[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WED AT 0000 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
30N91W TO 22N97W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND A RIDGE TO EXTEND TO SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE
NW TO N WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT W OF FRONT. GALE WINDS ON
THE GULF ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 07N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 07N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N26W 05N35W TO 03N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-
13N E OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NE OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC ITCZ TO THE GULF S OF A LINE FROM 30N86W TO 25N97W. AT THE
SURFACE...S-SW FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BASIN TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SW ALABAMA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM
FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN GULF WED MORNING ALONG WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM PENSACOLA SW TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH
WED EVENING SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A RIDGE THAT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A RIDGE AT
THE UPPER-LEVELS AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20-
25 KT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WHILE WINDS UP TO 15 KT
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE 20-25 KT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER BASIN TUE TO WED MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W N ATLC DRIFTS TO THE SW N ATLC...THUS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXIT THE GULF OF MEXICO THU MORNING WITH TAIL EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA SW TO BELIZE.

HISPANIOLA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL
PREDOMINATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
REACHING THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...HOWEVER
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER JACKSONVILLE AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE CURRENT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE SW N
ATLC...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N67W
SW TO 23N78W. FARTHER TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
23N62W TO 20N67W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN...A NARROW AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT
WITH BASE NEAR 27N40W SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH TAIL EXTENDING FROM 30N39W SW TO 27N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 26N
BETWEEN 34W-45W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW BASIN BY
THU MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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