[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 06N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N48W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND
33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT EXTENDS S TO THE NE
GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA AT
30N87W TO 28N91W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 26N97W. NW WINDS AROUND 20
KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AS WELL AS VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY
UNDER 10 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASIN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N75W TO JAMAICA TO 15N81W TO 10N83W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO
PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN BASIN AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...WHERE
THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHEAR LINE OVER HAITI AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REMNANT MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC  31N48W TO 26N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO 31N44W TO 25N49W TO 20N57W. THE COLD FRONT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES
TO NEAR 18N63W BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N
TO 31N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS S OF 24N. A 1040MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONTS MERGE AND CONTINUE EAST TO NEAR
30N43W TO 22N48W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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