[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEAR 27N98W WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND
EXTENDING N ACROSS CENTRAL US. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS
LOW IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM
27N97W TO 29N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS S OF THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
REACHING PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 15N81W TO
10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM
FROM THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE
WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OBSERVED E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE TO WEAKEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS
FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. TO THE NE...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
32N75W. WITH THESE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 55W IS
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE FIRST ONE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N59W TO 35N50W TO 44N51W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. THE SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N
CARIBBEAN TO 20N57W...THEN A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS FROM 20N57W
TO 28N49W TO 37N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THESE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 20N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 39N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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