[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 04N30W TO 05N40W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF BOTH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
MOSTLY 10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S
OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. A PLUME OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS N MEXICO AND THE W GULF W
OF 94W MOVING E. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE GULF TO
BE MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. EXPECT HOWEVER FOR SHOWERS TO BE
INLAND OVER S TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W TO JAMAICA TO NE NICARAGUA AT 14N83W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER E CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. DRIZZLE IS REPORTED OVER N
HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 64W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT
THE LOW OFF COLOMBIA TO ALSO DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO PERSIST.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF HISPANIOLA. NO PRECIPITATION IS
REPORTED YET. EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W
TO 23N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N63W TO 22N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 62W-66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF FRONT TO
FLORIDA. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N36W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 24N34W TO 20N34W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
27N30W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 27N-
31N BETWEEN 19W-24W. A TROPICAL JET IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 17W-
41W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N60W
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
LOW TO MOVE SW TO 25N40W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. FINALLY EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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