[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Dec 10 11:21:45 CST 2014


AXNT20 KNHC 101720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 06N30W TO 06N40W TO 06N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SOUTHERN GULF WHILE
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SW INTO THE
NE GULF. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1024 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO THAT
COVERS THE GULF BASIN S OF 28N. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 30N93W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER
THE E GULF WITH E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE W GULF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH AN AXIS OVER THE GULF WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CONUS
EAST COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...AND ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 20N78W TO 16N87W. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. A MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W. ENHANCED LIFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 15N
BETWEEN 74W TO 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. NW WINDS
AROUND 20 KT COVER THE NW BASIN. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OUT THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FRONT. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
AND ENDS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. THE COMBINATION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH...AND LIFT ON THE E SIDE OF A TROUGH OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OUT BEFORE REACHING
HISPANIOLA THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN ONGOING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE CONUS EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO
30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO 21N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N65W TO 26N67W TO 21N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
N OF 25N. SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 25N53W TO 19N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N31W SUPPORTS A 1012
SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE LOW TO 26N31W TO 22N31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 20W AND
31W...AND ARE ALSO WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 30N60W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LOW IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO THE SE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND NEAR THE LOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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