[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 40W-55W. THESE
WINDS ARE BEING GENERATED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WFO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

ATLC THREAT OF NEAR GALE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS IN THE
E ATLC OVER THE METEO FRANCE AREA OF IRVING...MADEIRA...METEOR
AND CAPE VERDE WITH THE THREAT OF GALE OVER CAPE VERDE. PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST WITH METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 9N18W TO 8N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N31W 5N39W TO 3N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE GULF OVER NE FLORIDA N OF CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N86W
27N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE
FRONT TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA AND INLAND OVER
TEXAS. DENSE FOG IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
FORT MYERS TO THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
WATERS EXTENDING FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE FRONT S COVERING THE
GULF. THIS IS LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO
NE MEXICO TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BY MON
NIGHT AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 9N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W TO 15N62W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF
13N LEAVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE TROUGHING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
IN THE MORNING HOURS TUE THROUGH WED.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. NE TO E
FLOW ALOFT AND THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE ISLAND FROM
SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY
WITH THE NE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES INTO THE
NW ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE N GULF OF
MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W
ATLC WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE BAHAMAS
EXTENDING FROM 27N76W TO 21N74W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN
56W-70W SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 25N60W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE ALONG 28N60W TO BEYOND 32N58W AND A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 19N59W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. A SECOND...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS
TO THE E PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 275
NM OF LINE FROM 15N54W ALONG 25N54W TO BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ALL OF THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1043 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM NE OF THE AZORES. THE
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS THIS MORNING
AND EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE FROM 31N68W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA BY MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS
LATE MON AND EXTEND FROM 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL MON
NIGHT...FROM 31N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM
28N65W TO EASTERN CUBA WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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