[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-42W AND N OF
28N BETWEEN 42W-54W. THESE WINDS ARE BEING GENERATED DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AZORES.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WFO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLC DEVELOPING NEAR GALE TO GALE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS IN THE E ATLC OVER THE METEO FRANCE AREA OF IRVING...METEOR
AND CAPE VERDE. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST WITH METEO
FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 8N19W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W 4N34W TO 4N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE GULF OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO
29N91W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT
TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. DENSE FOG IS WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT MYERS TO PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING
ALONG 96W FROM S MEXICO TO OVER E TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BRIDGING THE FRONT COVERING THE GULF. THIS IS LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF BY MON NIGHT AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
MOVES SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS S OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT CONTINUES
TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W TO 14N63W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF
13N LEAVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO BRING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS TO
ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

HISPANIOLA...
A NARROW BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. NE
TO E FLOW ALOFT AND THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE ISLAND
FROM SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE ALWAYS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THE NE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES INTO THE
NW ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 28N65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH
THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
22N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N BETWEEN 56W-65W SUPPORTING A 1005 MB
LOW NEAR 25N60W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND
32N57W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 20N61W TO
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W TO 14N63W. A SECOND...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 15N55W ALONG
26N54W TO BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND ALL OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1045 MB HIGH
ABOUT 200 NM N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN AND EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO S/CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AND WEAKEN FROM 32N67W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NW WATERS LATE MON AND EXTEND FROM 32N71W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA MON NIGHT...FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT AND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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