[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
23145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N28W TO 3N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 19W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER NEW
BRUNSWICK EXTENDS TO THE GULF. THIS IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT AND A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL N OF 27N...W OF 91W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF DUE
TO THE INTRUSION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK ALSO EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN. S OF 14N...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION...WITH AXIS FROM 14N80W TO 10N80W. THIS BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH N OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
FARTHER E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 24N61W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N66W. WITH THIS...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 62W-66W. SURFACE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT AROUND 10-15 KT. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DEEPEN...WHILE THE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND BRINGING
MOISTURE AND WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM 30N81W TO
34N64W TO 46N42W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N61W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW FROM 32N56W TO 24N61W TO
THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N-35N BETWEEN 50W-62W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 21N40W TO 18N41W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 36W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FARTHER E FROM 6N-23N
BETWEEN 17W-33W. OF NOTE...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES
TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 KT FROM 29N-33N
AND 25W-33W. CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS
AREA...WHICH COULD BE CONTAMINATING THESE WIND VALUES. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 61W WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE
MOVING SLOWLY NW ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OF ITS CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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