[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N14W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N30W TO 5N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N
TO 14N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS PROVIDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. AREAS OF FOG ALONG AND
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS BEGINNING TO BURN
OFF BUT MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SE GULF
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FL SW COAST AND 87W...AND ALSO
ACROSS THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN
93W AND 98W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT PATCHES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER S AMERICA NEAR GUATEMALA WHILE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
14N80W TO 10N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 75W TO 84W. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N61W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N63W. RECENT SATELLITE AND OBS THROUGH
1500 UTC INDICATE THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH HAS SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
61W AND 71W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
DEEPEN...WHILE THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS ONGOING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
HIGH MOISTURE IN NE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY LIMIT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CONUS TO 70W AND
COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE W ATLANTIC WITH E TO NE FLOW OF 15 TO
TO 20 KT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E FLORIDA TODAY. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N61W.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 28N59W THROUGH THE CENTER OF
THE LOW TO 18N63W AND THEN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 24N. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 37W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 25W AND
36W. ALSO OF NOTE...1130 UTC SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES
EASTERLY WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W
AND 33W. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS AREA...WHICH COULD BE
CONTAMINATING THE HIGHER WIND VALUES BEING OBSERVED. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 61W WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE
MOVING SLOWLY NW WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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