[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N21W TO
8N30W 7N40W 8N48W TO THE COASTA OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 8N23W
6N36W 8N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 110W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W
WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSUA THE CENTRAL
COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE WESTERNMOST END OF A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N...
ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST PLAINS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGVX...KXIH...KVBS...AND KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AND PATCHY AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 3
MILES OR LESS AND FOG...ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
PLAINS...INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA...AND IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND IN SOUTHERN/
COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN
MILTON FLORIDA IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-
HONDURAS TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SPANS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM
SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN
SANTIAGO...AND IT IS RAINING IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
BROAD NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
REMAINS. IT HAS BEEN IN THE SAME POSITION FOR AT LEAST THE LAST
24 HOURS OR MORE. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N50W AND 20N59W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N42W TO 19N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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