[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N40W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
19W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 39W-42W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 44W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES COVERING THE FAR W GULF WHILE THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED E EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER LOUISIANA NEAR
ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 29N92W TO 26N96W THEN S TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE E GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 83W AND S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W
TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND S FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL
MOVE N TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN N OVER THE W
ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N86W TO 18N87W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 79W-83W AND
N OF 17N W OF 80W TO OVER CUBA AND TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOTTING THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
DIMINISH WED AND THU.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND
COMPLIMENTS OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND INTO FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
28N74W THEN A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO BEYOND
32N60W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N49W TO 23N58W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 32N43W ALONG 26N50W TO 22N57W WHERE A SHEAR AXIS
IS ANALYZED TO JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE
ABOVE FRONT AND OVER THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS E-NE AS A
NEW SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN
SHIFTS E ON THU AND NORTHWARD ON FRI.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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