[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO
4N27W 5N36W 5N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 16W...AND FROM 9N
TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W...FROM 5N
TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND
30W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N33W 4N38W 6N41W 9N51W 11N56W
11N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
93W/94W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 85W EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD...MORE AND MORE...FROM TEXAS INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGVX...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG...AND 1 MILE OR LESS IN
SOME CASES...ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
EXCEPT IN WESLACO AND PORT ISABEL. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR
LESS AND FOG ARE FROM FALFURRIAS TO KINGSVILLE TO ALICE. THE
VISIBILITY IS 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI
NAVAL AIR STATION. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG IN
GENERAL COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST...EVEN REACHING
VICTORIA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN GALVESTON
TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR
LESS AND FOG ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR
LESS AND FOG IS IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...IN GULF SHORES
ALABAMA...AND IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SOME OF THE VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN LOW...1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA AND NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N63W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N70W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 27N53W. A SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 27N53W 24N63W 21N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO 20N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA...IS ALONG 24N54W 24N60W 21N65W...TO 18N68W IN THE MONA
PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W
AND JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 73W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND LAND.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.63 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA...AND
84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 79W AND LAND.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 23N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE...THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 8N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS
NEAR 27N53W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 27N53W 24N63W
21N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 20N75W. A SURFACE
TROUGH...THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...IS ALONG
24N54W 24N60W 21N65W...TO 18N68W IN THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
AREAS FROM BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. LIGHT
RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO AT 01/1000 UTC. RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER WERE REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA AT 01/0600 UTC AND AT
01/0900 UTC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS AS THE
CURRENT TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS/DISSIPATES. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD
AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE
WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE PERIOD OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND IT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS
ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE
48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
27N62W 23N63W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO AND ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N70W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
29N48W AND 27N53W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 27N53W 24N63W
21N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 20N75W. A SURFACE
TROUGH...THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...IS ALONG
24N54W 24N60W 21N65W...TO 18N68W IN THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N
TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 240
NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N48W 26N55W 20N60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...0.06 IN BERMUDA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WAS FOLLOWING THE FIRST TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM TO THE WEST OF
THE FIRST TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 26N62W 22N65W 20N67W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N13W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
27N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
20N NORTHWARD FROM 33W EASTWARD. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 12N35W TO 6N40W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N66W THROUGH 32N74W...INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO
27N41W AND 20N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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