[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO
6N25W 5N28W 5N40W AND 5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND
13W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN
22W AND 24W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W...AND FROM
6N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N30W 5N33W
4N37W 6N40W 8N43W 9N51W 10N53W 11N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
94W/95W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 87W EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 24N. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
32N78W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N88W...TO 28N94W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH...
KGUL...KGBK...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KMIS...KBVE...AND
KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES AND FOG...AND 1 MILE OR LESS IN
SOME CASES...ARE BEING OBSERVED IN TEXAS FROM FALFURRIAS TO
ALICE TO KINGSVILLE. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
IN...PORT LAVACA TEXAS...IN BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA...IN BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI...IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1
MILE OR LESS AND FOG...AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA DOWNTOWN AIRPORT...
AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION NEAR MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT MARATHON KEY.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
MARY ESTHER AND CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W. THIS TROUGH MAY BE PART OF
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W
AND 72W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 87W
AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 18N FROM 80W
WESTWARD TO LAND.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.63 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM
10N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM 6N TO 7N
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 25N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 22N67W...INTO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 63W AND 75W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
AREAS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. PUNTA CANA
WAS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS BEFORE THE 01/0400 UTC REPORT. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS AS THE
CURRENT TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS/DISSIPATES. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD
AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE
WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE PERIOD OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND IT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS
ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE
48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
28N61W 25N64W...TO 22N67W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N45W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1018 MB LOW CENTER...THROUGH 32N42W TO
29N46W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 29N46W TO 23N60W AND
TO 21N65W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES CONTINUES FROM
21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 18N TO 25N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 150 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 27N55W 20N61W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.06 IN BERMUDA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE FIRST ONE...PASSING THROUGH
32N63W TO 26N69W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N13W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
23N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N9W TO 32N13W AND 31N17W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM
33W EASTWARD.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO
32N78W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N88W...TO 28N94W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO MEXICO.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W
TO 25N41W AND 16N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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